The Indian Premier League (IPL) 2025 season is gradually inching closer to its decisive stage. Though no team has officially been eliminated from the playoffs race, there are some who have already taken one step into the next round, while the race for others is still alive purely on the basis of mathematical permutations and combinations. Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) boosted their hopes of a top-four finish with an impressive 6-wicket win over Delhi Capitals on Sunday.
Courtesy of the win, the Bengaluru franchise has gone to the top of the IPL 2025 points table, followed by the Gujarat Titans and Delhi Capitals. We asked Grok, (x AI) to share the probability of the IPL franchise’s playoffs qualification in IPL 2025. Here’s what the result was:
Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB): 88%
Likely to finish with 18-20 points (9-10 wins in total). Their strong form and high win probability make them almost certain to qualify. But, if history is to be considered, one can never be completely ‘safe’ with RCB.
Gujarat Titans (GT): 82%
With 6 matches left, they can reach 16-18 points (8-9 wins in total). Their games in hand give them a high probability of qualification.
Delhi Capitals (DC): 70%
Likely to finish with 16 points (maximum of 8 wins in total). Their consistent form gives them a solid chance despite the setback against RCB at home.
Mumbai Indians (MI): 65%
Likely to reach 14-16 points (7-8 wins in total). Though Mumbai have won 5 games on the trot, there’s a lot of competition for the 4th and final playoffs spot.
Punjab Kings (PBKS): 50%
Likely to finish with 13-14 points (6-7 wins in total, plus a solitary point from the no-result against KKR). After a strong start to the campaign, PBKS have had a bit of a slip-up recently. It’s all still in their hands, though.
Lucknow Super Giants (LSG): 25%
Likely to end with 12-14 points (6-7 wins in total). Despite the form of their top-order batters, Lucknow find their season in doldrums. They need to win all the remaining matches in order to remain in the playoffs hunt.
Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR): 10%
Likely to finish with 11-12 points (5-6 wins in total, plus 1 from the no-result). The defending champions seem all but out of the playoffs spots, with only certain combinations with other teams’ results keeping them in the race.
Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH): 5%
Likely to end with 10-12 points (5-6 wins in total). They need a miracle run to become eligible for playoffs spots again.
Rajasthan Royals (RR): 3%
Likely to finish with 9-10 points (4-5 wins in total). 5 consecutive losses on the trot means the Royals are all but out of the playoffs.
Chennai Super Kings (CSK): 2%
Likely to end with 8-10 points (4-5 wins in total). While it’s not all over for the MS Dhoni-led franchise, even winning all of their remaining games might not be enough for them to seal a top 5 spot.
Methodology Used: Monte Carlo Simulation
The remaining matches of IPL 2025 season were simulated 10,000 times to estimate final standings:
– For each team, simulate their remaining matches based on the win probabilities above.
– Calculate final points (2 points per win, 1 for a no-result, 0 for a loss).
– Rank teams by points, using NRR as a tie-breaker (simplified: teams with positive NRR rank higher in ties).
– Determine the percentage of simulations where each team finishes in the top four.
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