The United States said on Saturday which has direct communication with Syrian victorious Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebels. This comes at a time when western and Arab countries alongside Turkey promised to support a UAE and peaceful Syria after the removal of Bashar al-Assad’s government. This year saw changes to the diplomacy strategies in place for Syria as Secretary of State Antony Blinken openly interacted with HTS, a group banned by the U.S since 2018.
The announcement was made at the same time as Turkey reopened its embassy in Damascus after twelve years. A close ally of many of the factions at play in Syria, Ankara has not turned its back on such groups as the recent battle winners HTS, which led the recent campaign that displaced Assad.
Syrian Opposition and diplomats from the US, Turkey, the EU and several Arab countries convened in Aqaba, Jordan to call for a Syrian led transition. Demands were made for the creation of a government that reflects the population of the state to restore the country and protect rights of people. Speaking to the UN Security Council, special envoy Geir Pedersen emphasised humanitarian assistance and the avoidance of state structures’ failure.
Assad’s exit from Damascus last weekend was abrupt putting an end to over a decade of authoritarianism. Some followed the collapse of a brutal regime that locked up and executed critics; millions had been forced from their homes as the war killed more than 500,000 people. But the consequences are still saturated with difficulties. Many are visiting the former detention camps to search their missing relations while former detainees are reliving the torture in a country that is in economic crunch, rampant in-flation and years of sanctions.
The HTS, which is established from Syria’s branch of Al-Qaeda, has endeavored to soften its tone and express support for unity and law and order. However, critics such as UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash urged the audience not to believe everything that the group is saying.
Tensions remain high. Israeli militaries have made more than 60 attacks in Syria; the facilities close to a villa belonging to Assad’s relative. However, Turkey and Israel never cease military incursions inside Syria’s territory, while unidentified UN observers condemned Israeli military presence in buffer zones calling it as violation of the 1974 ceasefire.
HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, who was previously known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, condemned the attack, stressing that any further escalation could happen in a region already tired of continuing fighting for years. However the balance of power shows that the Ship of state remains precariously at sea and may take long for Syria to be anchored.
There are players that are already planning to take power after the defeat of Assad. The Qatari PM said his country is willing to meet with the transitional government of Syria with an intention of discussing issues such as, aid and possibly reopening of its embassy in the country. The European Union which is the largest donor to Syria has shown an interest in the reconstruction of the country.
A Hezbollah, which has long supported Assad, recognised its vulnerable situation after the toppling of the president. Naim Qassem, group leader acknowledged that the loss of Syria as a supply route would be a problem. He called on Syria’s new masters not to be friendly with Israel or ease the animosity between the two sides.
Although HTS is planning a full takeover of the country, there is still resistance. Militia from the former regime attacked rebellion forces on the Mediterranean shoreline, rising tension in the region. The international community continues to wait on the sidelines, as stakeholders have distinct opinions on where to lead the nation in this instability.
The collapse of Assad is good for Syria but comes with fresh unknowns. The process of restoring the united and calm Syria will imply overcoming the existing division, finding ways to punish the genial offender, as well as to draw trustful cooperation of regional and global actors.
