There has never been a moment in Canadian politics when a domestic election hinged so heavily on a single external factor. US President Donald Trump’s dibble-dabble on issues of trade, tariff and sovereignty has converged in Ottawa to fuel a national backlash against Washington. Trump’s threats against Canada have resulted in the consolidation of a nationalistic, even patriotic, sentiment across the country, leading to a boycott of travel to America and its products at home. Last week, Canadians gathered in an apolitical ‘Elbows Up’ rally in Toronto to show solidarity against Trump, a movement that has become a leitmotif for resistance against any American pressure.
Trump’s Threats May Be Counterproductive
Canada faces a national election on April 28. But interestingly, in less than a month, the poll numbers have changed rapidly. The Liberal party, at 42%, has pushed slightly ahead in the latest poll numbers, just surpassing the Conservative party, which is at 37%. The latter, in turn, which had remained ahead of the Liberals for most of the past few months, witnessed a fortune reversal owing to two factors: a change in the leadership of the Liberal party with Mark Carney, and Trump’s threats, which galvanised a pan-nation sentimental consolidation.
Trump’s threats have thrown the domestic equation between political parties within Canada in disarray. It has not only given the Liberal party some unforeseen advantages but has also complicated how the rest of the parties present their own various agendas. Most starkly, both the Conservative Party and the New Democratic Party (NDP) have been compelled to appear united in their political stance with the Liberal Party in dealing with Trump as an external threat. Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative leader, has been unable to get ahead of Carney. Similarly, Jagmeet Singh, the NDP leader, has also found it difficult to dissociate his party from the Trumpian threat. These developments have catapulted Carney, the leader of the Liberal Party, to the top of the polls at the moment. What they have also done is make Trump and the US the most important subject in the campaign, eclipsing most domestic issues facing the country.
The Call With Carney
However, a lot could change in the coming days given the unpredictability in Washington. Trump has toned down his rhetoric after a recent call with Mark Carney, in which the latter promised to begin comprehensive negotiations on a new economic and security relationship. Trump did not push back at Carney with either claims of sovereignty or swipes about why Canada should become the 51st state of the US. In fact, Carney described his phone call with Trump as ‘cordial’. This has led both the Conservative Party and the NDP to press for releasing more details of the grand bargain. Meanwhile, a high pitch from Washington has proved counterproductive for Trump, leading to the Liberal Party’s growing political consolidation in Canada.
Nonetheless, even after having got some breathing space from Trump, Canada is waiting with bated breath for April 2, when the US President has promised to introduce a slew of tariffs to match other countries. He has called it a ‘Liberation Day’ for America. Already, the US has imposed 25% tariffs on Canadian goods and threatened 10% duties on energy exports from Canada. An estimated 25% tariff on cars and car parts coming into the US, which will go in force on April 2, could have severe repercussions for the Canadian economy: to illustrate, auto parts worth more than $300 million cross the bridge connecting Ontario and Detroit on a daily basis.
What The Numbers Indicate
A key factor in the upcoming election will be how other parties will fare in the mix. The NDP’s estimated seat tally, as per a poll by The Economist, has dipped from 18 in the first week of January this year to nine by the end of March. The Bloc Québécoisis (BQ) has also apparently slipped marginally since January this year. Simultaneously, the Liberal Party’s rise is expected to cut into the other parties.
However, Poilievre’s hint that his party may align with BQ’s Yves-François Blanchet before the polls may change the equations. Even with the NDP declaring that it will not support the Conservatives, the primary contest will be between the Liberals and the Conservatives, with the former playing on the national mood and the latter banking on a nationwide support visible in its large rallies and anticipated vote-share.
The Bogey Named ‘India’
Amidst all this, India has taken centre stage in the Canadian election campaign. The Liberals in Canada have not missed any opportunity to cash in on the anti-India rhetoric that sustained their political alliance in the last government with the NDP, a party that openly supports the agenda and elements of Khalistani groups. The Liberal Party has not only revoked its party member Chandra Arya’s candidacy over his close ties to the Indian government, but it has also alleged India’s involvement in organising financial support for Poilievre in 2022.
The rapid developments in Canada over the past few weeks suggest that continued political targeting and smear campaign against India has persisted, led by the Liberals and the NDP, in particular. Given these circumstances, even a likely Conservative Party victory may provide little wiggle room to engage with India freely.
(Harsh V. Pant is Vice President, ORF. Vivek Mishra is Fellow, Americas, ORF)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
